Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around planet, which resulted alterations hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account impact of change on water availability are great importance, especially Brazil’s case, where from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a participation electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations system. this study, flow analysis head São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 2100, considering precipitation data CCSM4 model presented Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC). Projections future were scenarios RCP4.5 RCP8.5, based SMAP rain-flow model, followed by comparative with present climate. general, we can observe decades 2100 will be marked high levels precipitation, interspersed long droughts, recorded lower than Long Term Average (LTA) calculated basin. Therefore, new management strategies must considered maintain multiple uses